It'll be No. 1 Georgia (13-0) against No. 4 Ohio State (11-1) in the Peach Bowl and No. 2 Michigan (13-0) against No. 3 TCU (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl [Fox betting]
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia at Atlanta (8 p.m. Dec. 31, ESPN)
Point spread: Georgia -6.5
Moneyline: Georgia -278 - Ohio State +205
Total scoring Over/Under: 61.5 points
This is the easiest of the two games to bet in the semis. Georgia is in their dynasty stage and performing at peak dominance while Ohio State is floundering and sitting on a dead head coach no matter what the next 12 months.
Georgia point spread will grow to -9.5 before kickoff. Expect them to still cover in the game, win by more than 10. Ohio State safeties are so terrible at coberage, Stetson Bennett and his 60th ranked passing efficiency will still torch them along with the Bulldogs running game.
Will Ohio State maintain a competitive game through 2 quarters to make the over of 61.5 combined? NFL prospects on their offense going to need to show up entering the 4th quarter where I see it being Georgia 31 - Ohio State 13. Do I trust a Ryan Day team to fight back? No. Under 61.5 is the play.
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 2 Michigan at Glendale, Ariz. (4 p.m. Dec. 31, ESPN)
Point spread: Michigan -8.5
Moneyline: Michigan -333 - TCU +240
Total scoring Over/Under: 59.5 points scored by both teams combined
TCU offense has the productivity all year to get a drive when they need it. Will Michigan's offense over-power a standard edition TCU defense with their running game to turn this into a track meet?
Expect points in this game to be a grind. Sonny Dykes' playcalling gets skeptical in clutch times that will cause crucial 3-7 points to go off the board. Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh doesn't mind taking a 14-10 win as long as he keeps his west coast power running game offense to control the ball.
Spread by kickoff might be closer to Michigan -6.5 due to the TCU fighting for every win storyline. The bet is the favorite, Michigan to win by 9 or 10. Only chance of blowout in this game is injuries, be cautious of Big Ten's physicality not being as effective in Arizona weather.
Going under 59.5 points. Georgia and Michigan are setting themselves up in the semis. Neither gas tanks will be emptied this round. Need that tasty Georgia over Michigan line as soon as possible.
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